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Sliding simulation: a new approach to time series forecasting
(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1990-04)
This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...
ARMA Models and the Box–Jenkins Methodology
(John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1997-05)
The purpose of this paper is to apply the Box–Jenkins methodology to ARIMA models and determine the reasons why in empirical tests it is found that the post-sample forecasting the accuracy of such models is generally worse ...
The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study
(Elsevier, 1993)
The purpose of the M2-Competition is to determine the post sample accuracy of various forecasting methods. It is an empirical study organized in such a way as to avoid the major criticism of the M-Competition that forecasters ...
Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence
(Elsevier, 1998)
This paper extends the empirical evidence on the forecasting accuracy of extrapolative methods. The robustness of the
major conclusions of the M-Competition data is examined in the context of the telecommunications data ...