Now showing items 1-10 of 16
Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals
Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked ...
Forecasting when pattern changes occur beyond the historical data
Forecasting methods currently available assume that established patterns or relationships will not change during the post-sample forecasting phase. This, however, is not a realistic assumption for business and economic ...
Chronology of the Last Six Recessions
(Pergamon press ltd, 1982)
How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans ...
Consider the principal finding: A reply to William T. Ross
(INFORMS, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1988-05)
By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all ...
If we cannot forecast how can we plan?
The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and ...
Basic statistics : a user oriented approach (manuscript)
Table 2.1 shows the ages of the 230 students who entered INSEAD during the 1980/81 academic year. What can you make out of these numbers? Obνiously, the answer will depend upon who you are. Unless you haνe some objectiνe ...
Inflationary Expectations And Stock-Bond Yield Differentials
(Palgrave Macmillan Journals, 1980)
Global inflationary trends have for many decades eroded the purchasing power of money and have become embodied in the structure of security yields. This article explores the uses of various data formats to represent ...
Leadership: demythologizing some concepts
Leadership is a topic of almost universal fascination. Popular attention focuses on it because its overtones of success, power, and prestige are traditionally admired and pursued human goals; academic interest in it is ...
Beyond the oracle
(PA International Consulting Services Ltd., 1986)
The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...
Isp: Interactive Statistical Programs
(West Publishing Company, 1986)
This book is designed to be used in conjunction with a set of interactive statistical programs, called ISP, which has been developed to improve and facilitate the teaching and learning of basic statistics.