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Sliding simulation: a new approach to time series forecasting
(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1990-04)
This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...
Forecasting: Methods and Applications
(John Wiley and Sons, 2002)
This book covers what the authors call the “full range of major forecasting methods.” These comprise of the
traditional time series methods of decomposition, exponential smoothing, simple and multiple linear regression
and ...
What can we learn from corporate failure?
(Elsevier, 1991)
Failure is a natural process, observed in both biological and organizational systems. In this article different types of failure are illustrated and the most common factors that contribute to failure described. Delaying ...
Forecasting, Planning, and Strategies for the 21st Century
(Free Press, 1990)
Products ranging from Fifth Generation computers and sophisticated robotics to inexpensive, superfast wireless communications and smart cars will become widespread by the 21st century. At the same time, now unimagined new ...
The Forthcoming Information Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms
(Elsevier, 1995)
The impact of the industrial revolutions on all aspects of our society, work and life has, undoubtedly, been substantial. Will all the talk about the information revolution produce similar, far-reaching changes? By examining ...
Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting: An Update and Evaluation
(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 1978-12)
Forecasting has clearly become a field in its own right; its growth and change continue at a rather fast pace, as the number of published books and papers on the topic increases and as more experience about forecasting ...
Forecasting: Methods and Applications
(John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998)
Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate ...
The second law of systems
(Taylor & Francis, 1977)
This paper asserts that the Second Law of Thermodynamics (SLT) despite holding truc in ail laboratory tests heretofore conducted, cannot, by itself, explain the hierarchical universe. By examination of the existing evidence, ...
The Value of Decision Making in a Complex Environment: An Experimental Approach
(The European Institute of Business Administration, Fontainebleau, France, 1981)
Are the costs of time arid effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded ...
Why combining works?
(Elsevier, 1989)
The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons why combining works, discuss the implications involved and propose guidelines for improving the field of forecasting by exploiting the reasons that contribute to the ...