The Notes section of the international Journal of Forecasting contains commentary on the theory and practice of forecasting in the form of communications to the journal such as research notes, teaching tips, practitioners’ ...

ln the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the ...

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...

The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...

Purpose – The main scope of the paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of PYTHIA forecasting platform, to compare time series forecasting techniques, which were used to forecast mortgage loans in UK, and to show how ...

The method of principal component is used in this paper to analyse the interrelationship among the world's major stock exchanges. The major finding is that the interrelationship is unstable over time. This finding proves ...

The purpose of this paper is to apply the Box–Jenkins methodology to ARIMA models and determine the reasons why in empirical tests it is found that the post-sample forecasting the accuracy of such models is generally worse ...

After several decades of important theoretical developments, practical experience gained through applications, and the findings of many empirical studies the field of forecasting is entering into a stage of maturity. The ...

Today there is growing criticism of the Input/Output (I/O) model as a conceptual tool for explaining and understanding how systems are functioning. These models have been particularly useful-mainly in engineering, where ...

An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...

Table 2.1 shows the ages of the 230 students who entered INSEAD during the 1980/81 academic year. What can you make out of these numbers? Obνiously, the answer will depend upon who you are. Unless you haνe some objectiνe ...

The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...

Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to ...

How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans ...

In classical statistics, inferences about the popula- tion mean, confidence intervals, or testing of hypoth- eses are based on the sampling distribution of X. For the statistician or the mathematically sophisticated, there ...

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...

In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts ...

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence ...

By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all ...

Positive illusions are associated with unrealistic optimism about the future and an inflated assessment of one's abilities. They are prevalent in normal life and are considered essential for maintaining a healthy mental ...