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Now showing items 1-9 of 9
Sliding simulation: a new approach to time series forecasting
(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1990-04)
This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...
Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy
(Elsevier Ltd, 1991-11)
This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...
Reply to comments on "Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy"
(Elsevier, 1996)
Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...
"Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy"
(Elsevier, 1996)
First i would like to thank the commentators for their excellent and well thought comments on my paper. I believe that there is little disagrement between their views and mine. All commentators, with the possible exception ...
Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd Edition
(John Wiley & Sons, 1998)
The value of empirical work: A personal view
(Elsevier, 1993)
When I compare the field of forecasting with other social science disciplines I see a major advantage. We have the ability to empirically test the validity of our theories and find out the methods/ models that provide ...
The Impact of Empirical Accuracy Studies On Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 1995-12)
This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...
Strategic business forecasting
(Elsevier, 1996)
First, it is practically oriented. It avoids
theoretical, and mathematical discussions. It
directly gets into how to use it, when to use
it, what it is used for, and what resources
are required of it. It includes many ...
Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy
(Elsevier, 1996-12)
Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...