Written by true experts. Informative yet so much fun to read!" Nassim Nicholas Taleb- author of The Black Swan "Easy-to-digest and highly competent. If everyone were to read this book, the world would become a more enlightened ...

This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...

In this article, the authors begin by examining the current position of the Greek economy, its business environment and firms, noting a duality of extremes between family-owned firms and the subsidiaries of multinationals. ...

This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked ...

Management theories and tools, like the fashion industry have their moment of glory and die. Very few survive and, in some cases, their passing leaves extensive corporate damage in their wake. Spyros Makridakis reviews the ...

Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications yet large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our attempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical studies on ...

Statistical forecasting is based on the assumption of constancy, or structural ability in the data. This paper argues that such an assumption might not always be realistic in real life forecasting situations. Unfortunately, ...

This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting ...

The formal practice of forecasting and planning (F&P) has risen to prominence within a few decades and now receives considerable attention from both academics and practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature ...

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...

The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...

The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...

Those of us in the field of forecasting are facing a serious dilemma. On the one hand we know that all forms of forecasting must be based on historical data, on the other hand we are well aware of a plethora of empirical ...

The forecasting techniques available have increased both in number and com-plexity, so now is the time for a book to help both OR workers and managers to choose the most appropriate technique. Spyros Makridakis and Steven ...

Forecasting methods currently available assume that established patterns or relationships will not change during the post-sample forecasting phase. This, however, is not a realistic assumption for business and economic ...

Products ranging from Fifth Generation computers and sophisticated robotics to inexpensive, superfast wireless communications and smart cars will become widespread by the 21st century. At the same time, now unimagined new ...

Forecasting plays an important role in every major functional area of business management. In the area of marketing however, forecasting is doubly important; not only does it have a central role in marketing itself, but ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

First i would like to thank the commentators for their excellent and well thought comments on my paper. I believe that there is little disagrement between their views and mine. All commentators, with the possible exception ...