Browsing by Subject "Illusion of control"

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  • Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world 

    Makridakis, Spyros; Hogarth, Robin M.; Gaba, Anil (Elsevier, 2009)
    Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...

  • Living in a world of low levels of predictability 

    Makridakis, Spyros; Taleb, Nassim (Elsevier, 2009)
    This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to ...