This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...

Failure is a natural process, observed in both biological and organizational systems. In this article different types of failure are illustrated and the most common factors that contribute to failure described. Delaying ...

Products ranging from Fifth Generation computers and sophisticated robotics to inexpensive, superfast wireless communications and smart cars will become widespread by the 21st century. At the same time, now unimagined new ...

The impact of the industrial revolutions on all aspects of our society, work and life has, undoubtedly, been substantial. Will all the talk about the information revolution produce similar, far-reaching changes? By examining ...

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate ...

Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications yet large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our attempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical studies on ...

This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...

The Notes section of the international Journal of Forecasting contains commentary on the theory and practice of forecasting in the form of communications to the journal such as research notes, teaching tips, practitioners’ ...

Chess is an intellectually demanding game played by millions of people around the world. Yet unlike tennis or other competitive sports there are few changes in the rankings of chess players. There have only been twelve ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...