Now showing items 1-6 of 6
Metaforecasting: Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness
Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...
Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1982)
In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...
The Combination of Forecasts
Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...
Beyond the oracle
(PA International Consulting Services Ltd., 1986)
The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...
A New Approach to Statistical Forecasting
(Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1987-06)
Available approaches to statistical forecasting suffer from several deficiencies (problems) that render their predictions for real-world economic/business series inappropriate. In this paper I illustrate such deficiencies, ...