Now showing items 1-5 of 5
Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy
(Elsevier Ltd, 1991-11)
This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1982)
In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...
Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability
(Elsevier Ltd, 2009)
This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...
Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world
Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...
Living in a world of low levels of predictability
This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to ...