Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...

This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to ...

This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

First, it is practically oriented. It avoids theoretical, and mathematical discussions. It directly gets into how to use it, when to use it, what it is used for, and what resources are required of it. It includes many ...

An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...