This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...

Forecasting has clearly become a field in its own right; its growth and change continue at a rather fast pace, as the number of published books and papers on the topic increases and as more experience about forecasting ...

This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...

The SIBYL/RUNNER interactive forecasting system is a comprehensive package of time-shared computer programs that seek to handle four essential forecasting functions. The first is screening alternative forecasting techniques ...

First i would like to thank the commentators for their excellent and well thought comments on my paper. I believe that there is little disagrement between their views and mine. All commentators, with the possible exception ...

This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...