The crucial questions which center monetary analysis are : What determines the money supply? Can the Central Bank act to influence that supply? If yes, how? These questions have generated a good deal of controversy in the ...

Are the costs of time arid effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded ...

The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons why combining works, discuss the implications involved and propose guidelines for improving the field of forecasting by exploiting the reasons that contribute to the ...

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

ln the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the ...

Forecasting methods currently available assume that established patterns or relationships will not change during the post-sample forecasting phase. This, however, is not a realistic assumption for business and economic ...

This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting ...

This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes made in the past by long-term ...

How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans ...