The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...

The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...

The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...

Available approaches to statistical forecasting suffer from several deficiencies (problems) that render their predictions for real-world economic/business series inappropriate. In this paper I illustrate such deficiencies, ...

The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...

When I compare the field of forecasting with other social science disciplines I see a major advantage. We have the ability to empirically test the validity of our theories and find out the methods/ models that provide ...

This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...