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Now showing items 21-30 of 93
Forecasting and loss fuctions
(International Journal of Forecasting, 1988)
This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting ...
Management in the 21st Century
(Elsevier, 1989)
This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers
most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are
based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes
made in the past by long-term ...
Chronology of the Last Six Recessions
(Pergamon press ltd, 1982)
How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This
question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences
budgets and other plans ...
Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
(Informs, 1983-09)
An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from
several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice
of forecasting methods on the ...
Spyros Makridakis: An interview with theInternational Journal of Forecasting
(Elsevier, 2006)
Following the attainment of a place in the GreekSailing Team in the Olympics of 1960, SpyrosMakridakis set sail for New York University wherehe obtained a PhD in 1969. His first academicappointment was at INSEAD where he ...
Forecasting and planning: an evaluation
(Management Science, 1981-02)
The formal practice of forecasting and planning (F&P) has risen to prominence within a few decades and now receives considerable attention from both academics and practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature ...
Consider the principal finding: A reply to William T. Ross
(INFORMS, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1988-05)
By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental
teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the
experimental teams were not all ...
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1982)
In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...
Automation or autonomy in organizational design.
(Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1979-04-23)
Today there is growing criticism of the Input/Output (I/O) model as a conceptual tool for explaining and
understanding how systems are functioning. These models have been particularly useful-mainly in engineering,
where ...
ARMA Models and the Box–Jenkins Methodology
(John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1997-05)
The purpose of this paper is to apply the Box–Jenkins methodology to ARIMA models and determine the reasons why in empirical tests it is found that the post-sample forecasting the accuracy of such models is generally worse ...