Now showing items 1-5 of 5
Sliding simulation: a new approach to time series forecasting
(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 1990-04)
This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...
Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy
(Elsevier Ltd, 1991-11)
This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1982)
In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...
The future of forecasting
This paper discusses our aims in organizing this special issue. We believe that a synthesis of the field is needed to resolve the many conflicts between theory and empirical evidence and between advocates of the various ...
Forecasting and uncertainty: A survey
(IOS Press, 2016)
The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...