This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...

Chess is an intellectually demanding game played by millions of people around the world. Yet unlike tennis or other competitive sports there are few changes in the rankings of chess players. There have only been twelve ...

Lately there has been a renewed interest in strategic planning after more than a decade of focusing on operational concerns such as total quality, downsizing, benchmarking and reengineering. Will strategic planning provide ...

ln the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the ...

This paper describes the M3-Competition, the latest of the M-Competitions. It explains the reasons for conducting the competition and summarizes its results and conclusions. In addition, the paper compares such results / ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

Forecasting methods currently available assume that established patterns or relationships will not change during the post-sample forecasting phase. This, however, is not a realistic assumption for business and economic ...

First, it is practically oriented. It avoids theoretical, and mathematical discussions. It directly gets into how to use it, when to use it, what it is used for, and what resources are required of it. It includes many ...