Search
Now showing items 11-20 of 23
Accuracy of Forecasting
(Blackwell, 1979)
The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...
The Combination of Forecasts
(Wiley, 1983)
Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...
Beyond the oracle
(PA International Consulting Services Ltd., 1986)
The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...
Forecasting and Uncertainty: A Survey
(2014)
The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...
Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd Edition
(John Wiley & Sons, 1998)
A New Approach to Statistical Forecasting
(Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1987-06)
Available approaches to statistical forecasting suffer from several deficiencies (problems) that render their predictions for real-world economic/business series inappropriate. In this paper I illustrate such deficiencies, ...
Forecasting and uncertainty: A survey
(IOS Press, 2016)
The origins of forecasting can be traced back to the beginning of human civilization with attempts to predict the
weather, although forecasting as a field first appeared in the 1940s and attracted more followers from the ...
The value of empirical work: A personal view
(Elsevier, 1993)
When I compare the field of forecasting with other social science disciplines I see a major advantage. We have the ability to empirically test the validity of our theories and find out the methods/ models that provide ...
The Impact of Empirical Accuracy Studies On Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 1995-12)
This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...
Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world
(Elsevier, 2009)
Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. ...