After several decades of important theoretical developments, practical experience gained through applications, and the findings of many empirical studies the field of forecasting is entering into a stage of maturity. The ...

The priests of Delfphi have not been alone in providing forecasts for a price. Since the dawn of civilization, a great many fortune tellers, soothsayers, wizards, augurs and astrologers have sought to fulfil the human need ...

Forecasting methods currently available assume that established patterns or relationships will not change during the post-sample forecasting phase. This, however, is not a realistic assumption for business and economic ...

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence ...

Les lois de développement qui ont été périodiquement mises en oeu v re en Grèce n'ont pas toujours comporté d'incitations fin a ncières. Cette absence pouvait s'expliquer de plusieurs manl eres, soi t que l'on ait préféré ...

Available approaches to statistical forecasting suffer from several deficiencies (problems) that render their predictions for real-world economic/business series inappropriate. In this paper I illustrate such deficiencies, ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting ...

This paper discusses our aims in organizing this special issue. We believe that a synthesis of the field is needed to resolve the many conflicts between theory and empirical evidence and between advocates of the various ...

Leadership is a topic of almost universal fascination. Popular attention focuses on it because its overtones of success, power, and prestige are traditionally admired and pursued human goals; academic interest in it is ...

By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all ...

Les lois de développement qui ont été périodiquement mises en oeuvre en Grèce n'ont pas toujours comporté d'incitations financières. Cette absence pouvait s'expliquer de plusieurs manières, soit que l'on ait préféré alors ...

The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons why combining works, discuss the implications involved and propose guidelines for improving the field of forecasting by exploiting the reasons that contribute to the ...

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked ...

This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes made in the past by long-term ...

Forecasting errors fall in two clearly different categories: (a) the residual errors from fitting a model to the available data and (b) the post-sample forecasting errors. The emphasis of statistical theory and forecasting ...

Forecasting errors fall in two clearly different categories: (a) the residual errors from fitting a model to the available data and (b) the post-sample forecasting errors. The emphasis of statistical theory and forecasting ...

La teoria economica y el sentido comun nos indican una serie de factores que pueden intervenir en la formacion de las estructuras economicas. Lo que resta, por tanto, es descubrir los que son realmente cruciales en nuestra ...

This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...

Failure is a natural process, observed in both biological and organizational systems. In this article different types of failure are illustrated and the most common factors that contribute to failure described. Delaying ...