This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...

This book covers what the authors call the “full range of major forecasting methods.” These comprise of the traditional time series methods of decomposition, exponential smoothing, simple and multiple linear regression and ...

Failure is a natural process, observed in both biological and organizational systems. In this article different types of failure are illustrated and the most common factors that contribute to failure described. Delaying ...

Products ranging from Fifth Generation computers and sophisticated robotics to inexpensive, superfast wireless communications and smart cars will become widespread by the 21st century. At the same time, now unimagined new ...

The impact of the industrial revolutions on all aspects of our society, work and life has, undoubtedly, been substantial. Will all the talk about the information revolution produce similar, far-reaching changes? By examining ...

Forecasting has clearly become a field in its own right; its growth and change continue at a rather fast pace, as the number of published books and papers on the topic increases and as more experience about forecasting ...

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate ...

This paper asserts that the Second Law of Thermodynamics (SLT) despite holding truc in ail laboratory tests heretofore conducted, cannot, by itself, explain the hierarchical universe. By examination of the existing evidence, ...

Are the costs of time arid effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded ...

The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons why combining works, discuss the implications involved and propose guidelines for improving the field of forecasting by exploiting the reasons that contribute to the ...