Viktor Orbán's Grand Strategy between the EU and Russia 2010-2024
Thesis
Hungary's political orientation has changed significantly since 2010. The Orbán government is gradually coming into conflict with the European Union. Meanwhile, Viktor Orbán introduced an illiberal democracy and built an autocracy in Hungary. As a result of the migration crisis that has been unfolding since 2015, Viktor Orbán has gained ground in the European Union. Orbán, with his shuttlecock policy between Brussels and Russia, poses a security risk for Europe and threatens the unity of the European Union. He envisions the decline of Europe and builds strategic relations with Eastern dictatorships. His political statements set a bad example for radical European politicians like him. Orbán seems ready for Hungary to leave the European Union; in fact, he wants to take over the control of the Union. Orbán's anti-migration stance and opposition to Brussels' liberal thinking have strengthened his leadership role in the Visegrad Four. It has enabled him to promote the Visegrad cooperation as an alternative to Brussels. However, disagreements over the Russian-Ukrainian war had led to constant disputes between member states. Frustrated, Orban sought new allies and founded the European Patriots party group in July 2024. The Patriots aim to win a majority in the European Parliament and take control from the "Brussels bureaucrats". The Hungarian Defence Forces started intensive force development and modernisation in 2016. The significant increase in defence spending is in line with NATO's guidelines adopted in 2014. However, government communication regarding the developments often provokes opposition from politicians in neighbouring countries. The frequent mention of territories previously annexed from Hungary caused diplomatic tension. Orbán's rhetoric inciting combat, the preparation of the Hungarian army for war, the intensive recruitment in the country, raise the possibility of an imminent military confrontation. Viktor Orbán presented his long-term grand strategy for Hungary in his speech in July 2024. The detailed analysis of the grand strategy and the connections revealed by examining the events of the past almost fifteen years lead us to conclude that the separate parts of the strategy serve one main strategic goal: Increasing Hungary's territory. This study sets out to prove this claim.