How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans ...

This paper extends the empirical evidence on the forecasting accuracy of extrapolative methods. The robustness of the major conclusions of the M-Competition data is examined in the context of the telecommunications data ...

This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting ...

Specialization inhibits or prohibits interdisciplinary communication among diverse areas. It contributes to segmentation, which becomes a serious problem when several of those areas should depend upon knowledge which exists ...

This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes made in the past by long-term ...

An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...

Following the attainment of a place in the GreekSailing Team in the Olympics of 1960, SpyrosMakridakis set sail for New York University wherehe obtained a PhD in 1969. His first academicappointment was at INSEAD where he ...

In Part I, we extended the work of Ashby [1,2] to develop an analytical framework for determining the relation betweén system size and system stability. It was established that, for linear dynamic systems, as the number ...

The system approach views any organized entity as a unity composed of interdependent parts capable of sensitive and accurate interaction among themselves and with their environment. It is the mutual interaction among ...

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...