Management in the 21st Century

Makridakis, Spyros (1989)


This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes made in the past by long-term forecasters. Such forecasts are developed by examining long-term patterns in human history and exploiting the analogy between the Industrial and Information Revolutions. Moreover, the assumptions used to forecast are made explicit. The paper points out strong similarities, as well as differences, between the Industrial and the Information Revolutions which are consequently used to forecast forthcoming changes in business firms and managers. In addition, the impact of the Information Revolution on society is predicted, as is the importance of problem-solving, learning, and creativity. These are shown to be the critical skills which will be needed in the 21st century

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