This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...

The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...

Forecasting errors fall in two clearly different categories: (a) the residual errors from fitting a model to the available data and (b) the post-sample forecasting errors. The emphasis of statistical theory and forecasting ...

The concept of a system has been identified in a large number of disciplines; biology, management science, economics, sociology, political science, theology, law, etc., have profited by the apparatus associated with ...

In the preceding three chapters, several major classes of time-series forecasting methods were examined---exponential smoothing, decomposition, autoregressive/moving average, and filters. Various models within each ...

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and ...

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence ...

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...

Table 2.1 shows the ages of the 230 students who entered INSEAD during the 1980/81 academic year. What can you make out of these numbers? Obνiously, the answer will depend upon who you are. Unless you haνe some objectiνe ...

Unpredictability and uncertainty reigns over most of medicine. Should women be screened for mammography and men for prostate cancer? The answer is not obvious as a growing number of researchers and doctors assert that the ...