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Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results

dc.contributor.authorMakridakis, Spyros
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-08T08:01:23Z
dc.date.available2015-12-08T08:01:23Z
dc.date.issued1983-09
dc.identifier.issn0025-1909
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11728/6363
dc.description.abstractAn altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the accuracy of simple averages. It is concluded that the forecasting accuracy improves, and that the variability of accuracy among different combinations decreases, as the number of methods in the average increases. Thus, combining forecasts seems to be a reasonable practical altemative when, as is often the case, a "true" model of the data-generating process or a single "best" forecastmg method cannot be or is not, for whatever reasons, identified,en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherInformsen_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseriesManagement Science;
dc.rightsInformsen_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en_UK
dc.source.urihttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2630927en_UK
dc.subjectForecastingen_UK
dc.subjectCombined forecatsen_UK
dc.subjectAverage of forecastsen_UK
dc.titleAverages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Resultsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK


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