Living in a world of low levels of predictability

dc.contributor.author	Makridakis, Spyros
dc.contributor.author	Taleb, Nassim
dc.date.accessioned	2015-12-08T08:08:37Z
dc.date.available	2015-12-08T08:08:37Z
dc.date.issued	2009
dc.identifier.issn	0169-2070
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11728/6364
dc.description.abstract	This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.	en_UK
dc.language.iso	en	en_UK
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseries	International Journal of Forecasting;25
dc.rights	2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.	en_UK
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/	en_UK
dc.subject	Forecasting	en_UK
dc.subject	Accuracy	en_UK
dc.subject	Black Swans	en_UK
dc.subject	Low level predictability	en_UK
dc.subject	Illusion of control	en_UK
dc.subject	Paradox of control	en_UK
dc.title	Living in a world of low levels of predictability	en_UK
dc.type	Article	en_UK
dc.doi	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.008