Show simple item record

Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M-Competition)

dc.contributor.authorMakridakis, Spyros
dc.description.abstractIn 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts of a variety of economic time series, generally using 1001 time series. Only extrapolative methods were used, as no data were available on causal variables. The accuracies of methods were compared using a variety of accuracy measures for different types of data and for varying forecast horizons. The original paper did not contain much interpretation or discussion. Partly this was by design, to be unbiased in the presentation. A more important factor, however, was the difficulty in gaining consensus on interpretation and presentation among the diverse group of authors, many of whom have a vested interest in certain methods. In the belief that this study was of major importance, we decided to obtain a more complete discussion of the results. We do not believe that “the data speak for themselvesen_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJournal of Forecasting;
dc.subjectResearch Subject Categories::SOCIAL SCIENCES::Business and economicsen_UK
dc.titleCommentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M-Competition)en_UK
dc.title.alternativeThe Accuracy of Alternative Extrapolation Models: Analysis of a Forecasting Competition through Open Peer Reviewen_UK

Files in this item


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as