In this paper we show that by assuming a constant variance/covariance matrix over the holding period, the VaR limits can often be exceeded within the relevant horizon period. To minimize this risk, we formulate the problem ...

The system approach views any organized entity as a unity composed of interdependent parts capable of sensitive and accurate interaction among themselves and with their environment. It is the mutual interaction among ...

This paper asserts that the Second Law of Thermodynamics (SLT) despite holding truc in ail laboratory tests heretofore conducted, cannot, by itself, explain the hierarchical universe. By examination of the existing evidence, ...

In Part I, we extended the work of Ashby [1,2] to develop an analytical framework for determining the relation betweén system size and system stability. It was established that, for linear dynamic systems, as the number ...

The concept of a system has been identified in a large number of disciplines; biology, management science, economics, sociology, political science, theology, law, etc., have profited by the apparatus associated with ...

Forecasting errors fall in two clearly different categories: (a) the residual errors from fitting a model to the available data and (b) the post-sample forecasting errors. The emphasis of statistical theory and forecasting ...

First, it is practically oriented. It avoids theoretical, and mathematical discussions. It directly gets into how to use it, when to use it, what it is used for, and what resources are required of it. It includes many ...

Strategy theories make great claims about their ability to contribute to business success, but how realistic are those claims? We only have to look back to re engineering and its promised miracles, for a lesson in how far ...

First i would like to thank the commentators for their excellent and well thought comments on my paper. I believe that there is little disagrement between their views and mine. All commentators, with the possible exception ...

When I compare the field of forecasting with other social science disciplines I see a major advantage. We have the ability to empirically test the validity of our theories and find out the methods/ models that provide ...

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and ...

This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...

Those of us in the field of forecasting are facing a serious dilemma. On the one hand we know that all forms of forecasting must be based on historical data, on the other hand we are well aware of a plethora of empirical ...

The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...

By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all ...