Strategy theories make great claims about their ability to contribute to business success, but how realistic are those claims? We only have to look back to re engineering and its promised miracles, for a lesson in how far ...

First i would like to thank the commentators for their excellent and well thought comments on my paper. I believe that there is little disagrement between their views and mine. All commentators, with the possible exception ...

When I compare the field of forecasting with other social science disciplines I see a major advantage. We have the ability to empirically test the validity of our theories and find out the methods/ models that provide ...

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and ...

This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in practically all important areas of our lives, and the implications of this. It summarizes the huge body of solid empirical ...

Those of us in the field of forecasting are facing a serious dilemma. On the one hand we know that all forms of forecasting must be based on historical data, on the other hand we are well aware of a plethora of empirical ...

The ultimate test of any forecast is whether or not it is capable of predicting future events accurately. Planners and decision makers have a wide choice of ways to forecast, ranging from purely intuitive or judgemental ...

By focusang on issues concerning precise reUuive perfonnance of the human and experimental teams, Ross crtsscutes the nugor, and a priori »ir[»ising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all ...

Forecasting plays an important role in every major functional area of business management. In the area of marketing however, forecasting is doubly important; not only does it have a central role in marketing itself, but ...

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence ...

Management theories and tools, like the fashion industry have their moment of glory and die. Very few survive and, in some cases, their passing leaves extensive corporate damage in their wake. Spyros Makridakis reviews the ...

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked ...

In classical statistics, inferences about the popula- tion mean, confidence intervals, or testing of hypoth- eses are based on the sampling distribution of X. For the statistician or the mathematically sophisticated, there ...

Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to ...

This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to ...

An altemative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the ...

Today there is growing criticism of the Input/Output (I/O) model as a conceptual tool for explaining and understanding how systems are functioning. These models have been particularly useful-mainly in engineering, where ...

This paper asserts that the Second Law of Thermodynamics (SLT) despite holding true in all laboratory tests heretofore conducted, cannot, by itself, explain the hierarchical universe. By examination of the existing evidence, ...