Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

dc.contributor.author	Lawrence, Michael
dc.contributor.author	Makridakis, Spyros
dc.date.accessioned	2015-12-08T09:15:01Z
dc.date.available	2015-12-08T09:15:01Z
dc.date.issued	1989
dc.identifier.issn	0749-5978
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11728/6367
dc.description.abstract	Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.	en_UK
dc.language.iso	en	en_UK
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes;Volume 43, Issue 2
dc.rights	Copyright © 1989 Published by Elsevier Inc.	en_UK
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/	en_UK
dc.subject	Research Subject Categories::SOCIAL SCIENCES::Business and economics::Economics	en_UK
dc.title	Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals	en_UK
dc.type	Article	en_UK
dc.doi	10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6