Within New Keynesian economics, the optimality of a monetary policy that aims at zero inflation is surprisingly robust. Optimal monetary policy has this character despite the inefficiency of the nonstochastic steady state ...

This paper studies different types of commitment policy in an economy where the deterministic steady state is inefficient. We show how a policy suggested by the approach of policy design entails positive long-run inflation, ...

The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons why combining works, discuss the implications involved and propose guidelines for improving the field of forecasting by exploiting the reasons that contribute to the ...

Failure is a natural process, observed in both biological and organizational systems. In this article different types of failure are illustrated and the most common factors that contribute to failure described. Delaying ...

Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications yet large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our attempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical studies on ...

Purpose – The main scope of the paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of PYTHIA forecasting platform, to compare time series forecasting techniques, which were used to forecast mortgage loans in UK, and to show how ...

The forecasting techniques available have increased both in number and com-plexity, so now is the time for a book to help both OR workers and managers to choose the most appropriate technique. Spyros Makridakis and Steven ...

Statistical forecasting is based on the assumption of constancy, or structural ability in the data. This paper argues that such an assumption might not always be realistic in real life forecasting situations. Unfortunately, ...

Are the costs of time arid effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded ...

A number of accelerated vehicle-retirement programs have been implemented by private companies and public agents to reduce pollution and promote environment friendly technology. Our paper examines subsidy programs for the ...

Σ' οποιονδήποτε ζει ή ταξιδεύει στην Ελλάδα δίνεται σuχνά η ευκαιρία να διαπιστώσει με τα ίδια του τα μάτια τις διαφορές στο επίπεδο ζωής μεταξύ αστικών και αγροτικών περιοχών αφ' ενός και μεταξύ τη ς Αθήνας και όλης της ...

A crucial question to anyone engaged in analysing the inflationary process in a country, is how much has the Government contributed to the generation and maintenance of the high demand pressures. The creation of demand ...

This paper relates economic theorising and policy making in a context of people's changing behaviour, which makes economy to work in a different way. As economic theory is not adapting to these changes, it produces false ...

The crucial questions which center monetary analysis are : What determines the money supply? Can the Central Bank act to influence that supply? If yes, how? These questions have generated a good deal of controversy in the ...

Value at risk is becoming increasingly popular as a management and regulatory tool. But before this acceptance goes much further, we need to assess its reliability under financial market conditions. Most VAR models deal ...

Filtered historical simulation provides the general framework to our backtests of portfolios of derivative securities held by a large sample of financial institutions. We allow for stochastic volatility and exchange rates. ...

In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts ...

In this study an alternative approach for assessing securities' risk is applied. Various authors have argued that security returns are not homoskedastic but exhibit variation over time. They have observed that large changes ...

Emerging risk-management techniques use Value at Risk (VAR) to assess the market risk of a portfolio. We propose a relative simple method to estimate VAR conditionally to reflect new information about the volatility of ...

We propose filtering historical simulation by GARCH processes to model the future distribution of assets and swap values. Options’ price changes are computed by full reevaluation on the changing prices of underlying assets. ...