Forecasting errors fall in two clearly different categories: (a) the residual errors from fitting a model to the available data and (b) the post-sample forecasting errors. The emphasis of statistical theory and forecasting ...

Forecasting has a long history. An understanding of such history coupled with the study of the empirical evidence can provide invaluable information for improving the accuracy and usefulness of predictions. Statistical ...

This paper describes the M3-Competition, the latest of the M-Competitions. It explains the reasons for conducting the competition and summarizes its results and conclusions. In addition, the paper compares such results / ...

ln the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the ...

Chess is an intellectually demanding game played by millions of people around the world. Yet unlike tennis or other competitive sports there are few changes in the rankings of chess players. There have only been twelve ...

This paper describes an empirical investigation aimed at measuring the effect of different initial values and loss functions (both symmetric and asymmetric) on the post-sample forecasting accuracy. The 1001 series of the ...

This paper predicts the type of business firms and managers most likely to emerge in the 21st century. The forecasts are based on rational principles which avoid the common mistakes made in the past by long-term ...

Specialization inhibits or prohibits interdisciplinary communication among diverse areas. It contributes to segmentation, which becomes a serious problem when several of those areas should depend upon knowledge which exists ...

The purpose of the M2-Competition is to determine the post sample accuracy of various forecasting methods. It is an empirical study organized in such a way as to avoid the major criticism of the M-Competition that forecasters ...

This paper examines a major area of statistics: the application of time series analysis to forecasting, particularly as it applies to the areas of business and economics. This area is unusual in the social sciences in that ...

This paper discusses our aims in organizing this special issue. We believe that a synthesis of the field is needed to resolve the many conflicts between theory and empirical evidence and between advocates of the various ...

The impact of the industrial revolutions on all aspects of our society, work and life has, undoubtedly, been substantial. Will all the talk about the information revolution produce similar, far-reaching changes? By examining ...

In this article, the authors begin by examining the current position of the Greek economy, its business environment and firms, noting a duality of extremes between family-owned firms and the subsidiaries of multinationals. ...

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts ...

After several decades of important theoretical developments, practical experience gained through applications, and the findings of many empirical studies the field of forecasting is entering into a stage of maturity. The ...

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific ...

This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. ...

The SIBYL/RUNNER interactive forecasting system is a comprehensive package of time-shared computer programs that seek to handle four essential forecasting functions. The first is screening alternative forecasting techniques ...

Long-term predictions are indispensable for planning and strategy. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using them. This paper examines these issues and proposes ...

Lately there has been a renewed interest in strategic planning after more than a decade of focusing on operational concerns such as total quality, downsizing, benchmarking and reengineering. Will strategic planning provide ...